Even after the US resolution against Sri Lanka in the UNHRC was toned down, it had provisions that the present government found obnoxious. It would be interesting to examine this US sponsored resolution in the context of the larger scheme of things in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka is a multi-party democracy with coalitions led by the UNP and the SLFP holding power alternately. Power can change hands only through elections. Both political parties need the goodwill of the majority of the population to win and hold power. A regime change only means power going to the opposition UNP. In the future it’s very unlikely that any government will get overwhelming majorities both in terms of votes and seats in parliament. In such a situation, no party is going to do anything that would needlessly tilt a section of the public to the other side. So what are the chances of the US resolution being implemented by the present government or a future one?
One of the key recommendations in the resolution is that the report on Sri Lanka of the High Commissioner on Human Rights should be implemented. Obviously, the present government is not interested in the Human Rights Commissioner’s report. Once the opposition manages to elbow their way back into power, words like accountability and reconciliation will become irrelevant. The main Tamil party, the TNA, is working closely with the opposition UNP and Tamil votes formed a good proportion of the votes received by the joint opposition candidate Gen. Sarath Fonseka. In fact he won only in the Tamil speaking electorates which clearly indicates that no Tamil is really interested in the so called accountability that the USA is speaking about. The TNA leader Sampathan himself came on TV and told the people to vote for SF who led the Army during the war against the LTTE. Thus we see that as far as the opposition is concerned, reconciliation and accountability issues have already been sorted out and those two words can be used only against the Rajapaksas.
Another key recommendation in the US resolution is that an ‘independent and credible investigation’ is held into allegations of violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law during the war. Such a thing will not take place so long as the Rajapaksa’s are in power. Once the other side comes into power, they will almost certainly be existing on a small majority in terms of votes and a slim majority in parliament. Besides, a party begins to decline in popularity once in power. In such a context, no future government is going to take any step that will needlessly turn public opinion against them, especially if what they are called upon to do has no relevance to the voting population in this country and only foreigners are interested in it.
The US sponsored resolution calls for the Implementing the recommendations of the Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission, but the moment there is a change of government nobody will even remember that there was anything called an LLRC.
The resolution also calls upon the Sri Lankan government to co-operate with UN Special Rapporteurs. It is of course unlikely that the present government would allow any UN Special Rapporteur to set foot in Sri Lanka. Once the government changes, UN Special Rapporteurs may certainly be allowed to come into the country. By that time, the Rajapaksa brothers will be too old to be politically relevant and a different set of leaders would have taken over the reins of the SLFP. If the UN Special Rapporteurs hound the old and retired Rajapaksa brothers, that will create a wave of sympathy for the SLFP. Then the leaders of the new Sri Lankan government will be pleading with the UN Rapporteurs to please go away without upsetting the political apple cart. In this country, governments retain power only through popular support. No future government will be able to trundle an old and feeble war hero to the airport on a wheelchair to be taken to the Hague for a war crimes trial and expect to survive politically.
When one comes to really think about it, the US-sponsored UNHRC resolution is spectacularly and mind-bogglingly irrelevant in the context of the larger scheme of things in this country. The resolution has asked the UN Human Rights Commissioner to present updates and reports on the progress in implementing this resolution at future sessions of the UNHRC. Even this has relevance only until the Rajapaksa regime is in power. No future government is going to give a twit about the Human Rights Commissioner’s reports.
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